How Does The Summer Transfer Season Change the Outright Odds?

We have an exciting summer transfer window behind us. Many big names have left Europe to continue their careers in more exotic leagues, and fresh talent has been brought in to strengthen various parts of the clubs. We’ve seen quite a few spectacular transfers this year. The question is, how do these transfers influence the chances of the clubs performing well in their respective leagues? If you routinely use sports betting SA websites or bet on football on the high street, you should keep an eye on transfer news if you are planning to place an outright bet.

Star power

When a club signs a football star, they don’t just add an excellent player to their roster – they also add their fan base and influence to theirs. This was the case of Cristiano Ronaldo joining Real Madrid in 2009 (and then leaving for Al Nassr), or Lionel Messi signing with Inter Miami. But football stars don’t necessarily improve the performance of the clubs where they play. Take Ronaldo, for example. When he joined Manchester United for the second time in 2021, he didn’t perform as well as expected. According to analysts, interim manager Ralf Rangnick simply couldn’t use him efficiently. And, of course, there were those who felt that Ronaldo is past his prime.

In some cases, signing a star player means an immediate improvement in the team’s performance. This is the case of Messi with Inter Miami: he scored nine goals and provided three assists in the first five games he played with the team. In this case, the improvement was instant, and his arrival certainly bent the odds in Inter’s favour from the moment he arrived.

Team performance

But it’s not the stars who are the most important players to arrive or depart in a transfer season. Of course, a big name like Neymar or Messi will certainly bring in more sponsors and improve the club’s bottom line. But from a performance point of view, it’s not the stars who are important – it’s the players that the team actually needs.

By the end of each season, the managers identify the strong points and weak points of the team, and they have a clear view of which player is set to leave. So, they know where to strengthen the team, and where they’ll need replacements. The clubs have scouts to identify the perfect players for the job, and start negotiations with them (and their teams and agents). So, when the transfer window opens, they can begin the signing procedure.

Incoming players that plug holes in the team’s defence or a new spearhead for their attack can significantly improve the team’s performance and bend the odds in their favour.

The amount is not important

The amount clubs spend during a transfer season doesn’t necessarily indicate that their performance will improve in the next season. There are plenty of examples of clubs paying fortunes for players and not getting their money’s worth for a variety of reasons. Then again, free transfers are also a thing – just think of Messi’s departure from Barca to PSG (let’s not discuss his salary at this point).

Bringing in young and talented players can improve a team’s chances to win much more than an expensive player who may or may not be able to work with the other players or the manager.

How do transfers change outright odds?

Transfers do influence the chances of a team doing better throughout the season. The right transfers, of course. In some cases, in turn, star players have more influence on the clubs’ bottom line than on the trams’ performance on the turf. But the right choices made by the clubs’ management can really improve their chances to be victorious at the end of the season.